Recent Turbulence in Europe's Sixth-Generation Fighter Programmes
The race to develop Europe's next-generation combat aircraft has entered a critical phase, with the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) facing existential challenges while the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) advances steadily. As of early 2026, industrial disputes and strategic divergences have cast doubt on FCAS's viability, prompting speculation about Germany's potential defection to GCAP. This shift could reshape European defence cooperation and bolster the UK's position in advanced aerospace.
FCAS, launched in 2017 under the leadership of French President Emmanuel Macron and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, aims to replace ageing fleets like the Rafale and Eurofighter by 2040. The programme envisions a networked system-of-systems, including a next-generation fighter, remote carriers, and advanced sensors. However, progress has stalled dramatically. Phase 1B, focused on technology maturation, was meant to conclude by mid-2026, paving the way for a demonstrator flight in 2027. Instead, deep rifts between lead contractors Dassault Aviation (France) and Airbus Defence and Space (Germany) have paralysed development. Dassault's demand for up to 80% workshare on the fighter jet has been met with fierce resistance from Germany, which fears the erosion of its industrial base.
By late 2025, reports emerged of a potential "two-track" solution, where France and Germany might pursue separate fighter designs while sharing components like engines. Yet, optimism faded quickly. In December 2025, a key deadline for resolving disputes passed without agreement, leading European officials to declare the project "dead" in private. The Daily Telegraph described the collapse as deepening the Franco-German rift, with timelines slipping to 2045 or beyond. Belgian involvement, confirmed in May 2024, is now under review, adding to the uncertainty. President Macron has publicly denied the programme's demise, insisting on talks with new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, but sources suggest Berlin is exploring alternatives.
In contrast, GCAP has maintained momentum since its 2022 inception. Targeting a 2035 in-service date, the programme consolidates the UK's Tempest, Italy's future fighter plans, and Japan's F-X. A major milestone came in June 2025 with the formation of Edgewing, a joint venture between BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Ltd., headquartered in the UK. This entity will oversee design and delivery, with equal 33.3% stakes for each partner. Flight testing of the Excalibur demonstrator is slated for 2027, and full development contracts are expected imminently in 2026. The UK Defence Journal notes that GCAP's collaborative approach has avoided the infighting plaguing FCAS, with innovations in digital engineering accelerating progress.
Germany's predicament lies at the heart of the drama. Facing mounting pressure from unions and lawmakers, Berlin has signalled dissatisfaction with FCAS's governance. Chancellor Merz has discussed options, including a complete exit, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressing openness to Germany joining GCAP. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto echoed this in December 2025, suggesting Germany - and even Australia - could integrate later. UK Defence Minister Luke Pollard confirmed the programme remains open to partners, emphasising delivery at pace. However, late entry would likely afford Germany limited influence and workshare, potentially as a tier-two participant. Some German officials favour ties with Sweden's Saab for unmanned elements, or even procuring US F-35s as a stopgap.
A German switch to GCAP could salvage Europe's sixth-generation ambitions by consolidating resources, reducing duplication, and enhancing export potential. Yet, it risks further fracturing EU defence unity, especially amid broader geopolitical strains. For the UK, such a move would validate GCAP's model and strengthen ties with Berlin. As Merz and Macron prepare for pivotal talks, the coming months will determine if FCAS can be revived or if GCAP emerges as the continent's dominant path forward.