10-Point Plan to Rebuild the Royal Air Force’s Capabilities with a Defence Budget at 5% of GDP

The UK government has committed to spending 5% of GDP on national security by 2035. However, this target only encompasses 3.5% on core defence, with 1.5% on non-defence resilience measures including infrastructure, energy security, cyber defences, and economic shock absorption.

Although the UK government has claimed that the UK is on a “war footing” it is quite clear that it is anything but, with capabilities still being removed without any replacements even specified, and a failure to invest in long-lead items. This contrasts with the pre-World War 2 government which placed considerable orders in the mid-1930s, such as for 310 Spitfires in 1936 which entered service in 1938 and the commissioning of the shadow factories to mass produce them which took until 1940 to start production.

If the UK defence budget did actually increase to 5% of GDP, approximately £140 billion annually (based on 2025 UK GDP estimates), the Royal Air Force (RAF) would have an opportunity to restore its status as a global leader in air power. This 10-point plan focuses on combat aircraft, airborne early warning (AEW), maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), transport, helicopters, weapons, drones, and recruitment/retention, with F-35B aircraft transferred to the Royal Navy, replaced by F-35A and additional Typhoon procurement, and Voyager tankers fitted with boom refuelling.

1. Expand Combat Aircraft Fleet

Objective: Strengthen air superiority and strike capabilities with RAF-specific platforms.

· Transfer all F-35B Lightning II jets to the Royal Navy for carrier operations, streamlining RAF focus on land-based aircraft.

· Procure 72 F-35A Lightning II jets, optimized for RAF airbases, by 2035, costing £14 billion (cheaper than F-35B due to conventional takeoff/landing which should all be transferred to the Royal Navy).

· Acquire 36 additional Typhoon Tranche 4 aircraft, increasing the total to 84 new/upgraded Typhoons by 2035, costing £6 billion.

· Upgrade 48 existing Typhoon Tranche 3 aircraft with advanced radars and weapons, costing £3 billion, extending service life to 2045. This ensures a robust mix of stealth and multi-role fighters for RAF operations.

2. Enhance Airborne Early Warning (AEW) Capabilities

Objective: Improve situational awareness and command/control.

· Replace the E-3D Sentry with 6 additional E-7 Wedgetail AEW aircraft, increasing the fleet to 9 by 2032, costing £3.5 billion (two additional radars have already been procured).

· Equip Wedgetails with AI-driven data fusion systems for real-time threat analysis, with £500 million for integration.

· Develop a networked AEW system to link with Typhoons, F-35As, and drones, costing £800 million. This strengthens the RAF’s ability to coordinate air operations in contested environments.

3. Bolster Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA)

Objective: Enhance maritime security and anti-submarine warfare (ASW).

· Procure 6 additional P-8 Poseidon aircraft, increasing the fleet to 15 by 2030, costing £2.5 billion.

· Upgrade all P-8s with advanced sonobuoy systems and hypersonic anti-ship missiles, with £1 billion allocated.

· Integrate MPAs with unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) for joint RN-RAF operations, costing £500 million. This ensures comprehensive maritime surveillance and deterrence in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific. Consideration should be given to transferring MPAs to the Royal Navy, as is the case with the US Navy.

4. Modernise Transport and Tanker Fleet

Objective: Improve strategic airlift and air-to-air refuelling capabilities.

· Acquire 10 A400M Atlas aircraft, increasing the fleet to 35 by 2033, costing £2.5 billion, to support global deployments; alternatively, the considerably cheaper C-130 Hercules could be procured in much greater numbers.

· If possible, procure 4 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft for heavy-lift operations, costing £1.5 billion – the C-17 is currently out of production, but a restart is under consideration

· Retrofit 14 Voyager tankers with boom refuelling systems to support F-35A and allied aircraft, costing £1 billion, alongside existing probe-and-drogue systems. This enables rapid deployment and sustained air operations for NATO and humanitarian missions.

5. Upgrade Helicopter Capabilities

Objective: Enhance support for ground and amphibious operations.

· Replace Puma helicopters with 30 new medium-lift helicopters (e.g., H225M), costing £2 billion, by 2032.

· Upgrade 25 Chinook helicopters with advanced avionics and extended-range fuel tanks, costing £1.2 billion, for special forces and heavy-lift roles.

· Develop a modular helicopter drone integration system for reconnaissance and resupply, costing £600 million. These upgrades ensure versatility for combat and disaster relief operations. Consideration should be given to transferring the helicopter fleet to the Army Air Corps, as is the case with the US Army.

6. Advance Weapons Systems

Objective: Equip the RAF with precision and multi-domain weaponry.

· Invest £4 billion in hypersonic missile development for Typhoon and F-35A, deployable by 2035.

· Procure 1,000 Meteor and SPEAR 3 missiles for enhanced air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities, costing £2 billion.

· Develop directed-energy weapons (DEW) for counter-drone and missile defence, with £1.5 billion allocated. These systems ensure the RAF can counter advanced threats and deliver precision strikes.

7. Integrate Advanced Drone Systems

Objective: Leverage unmanned systems for surveillance, strike, and support roles.

· Deploy 50 Protector RG1 drones for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), costing £2 billion, integrated with RAF command networks.

· Develop a loyal wingman drone programme for Typhoon and F-35A, with 30 uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAVs) by 2035, costing £3 billion.

· Introduce 500 small swarm drones for electronic warfare and decoy roles, costing £800 million. Drones will extend RAF reach and reduce risks to pilots.

8. Recruitment and Retention Initiatives

Objective: Build a skilled and sustainable workforce.

· Launch a £600 million recruitment campaign targeting STEM graduates, women, and underrepresented groups, aiming for 35,000 personnel by 2030.

· Offer retention bonuses and improved career paths for pilots, engineers, and cyber specialists, costing £400 million annually.

· Expand training facilities with advanced simulators and AI-driven instruction, costing £1.2 billion. A motivated workforce is essential for operational readiness.

9. Invest in Cyber and Space Capabilities

Objective: Protect RAF assets and expand influence in new domains.

· Establish a dedicated RAF cyber unit to defend air platforms and networks, costing £1 billion.

· Develop a space surveillance capability with small satellites for monitoring threats, costing £1.5 billion, in collaboration with UK Space Command.

· Equip aircraft with AI-driven electronic warfare systems, costing £800 million, to counter enemy radar and communications. These capabilities safeguard RAF operations in contested digital and space environments.

10. Foster International Partnerships and Innovation

Objective: Leverage alliances and technology to enhance capabilities.

· Deepen Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) collaboration with Japan and Italy, allocating £2 billion for joint R&D on Tempest and related systems.

· Partner with NATO allies for interoperable AEW and missile defence systems, saving £1 billion through shared costs.

· Establish an RAF innovation hub to fast-track AI, quantum computing, and DEW technologies, with £1.5 billion over 10 years. International cooperation and innovation will amplify the RAF’s global impact.

Budget Allocation Summary

· Combat aircraft: £23 billion (F-35A: £14 billion, Typhoon: £9 billion) in addition to the on-going investment in the GCAP/Tempest programme

· AEW: £4.8 billion

· MPA: £4 billion

· Transport/tankers: £5 billion

· Helicopters: £3.8 billion

· Weapons: £7.5 billion

· Drones: £5.8 billion

· Recruitment/retention: £3.2 billion

· Cyber/space: £3.3 billion

· Partnerships/innovation: £4.5 billion Total: £61.1 billion over 10 years, within the £140 billion annual defence budget at 5% of GDP.

Implementation Timeline

· 2025–2028: Begin procurement of F-35A, Typhoons, P-8s, A400Ms, and recruitment campaigns; start Voyager boom refuelling retrofit.

· 2028–2032: Deliver additional E-7 Wedgetails, upgraded Typhoons, and new helicopters.

· 2032–2035: Commission Tempest fighters, UCAVs, and space surveillance systems.

· 2035–2040: Fully integrate hypersonic missiles, DEWs, and cyber capabilities.

Conclusion

This 10-point plan revitalises the Royal Air Force’s capabilities, ensuring air superiority, global reach, and resilience against modern threats. By transferring F-35B and P-8 to the Royal Navy and helicopters to the Army Air Corps, procuring F-35A and additional Typhoons, and fitting Voyager tankers with boom refuelling, the RAF can optimise its land-based operations, embrace cutting-edge technologies, and attract top talent, securing its role as a cornerstone of UK national security.